At a time when the global climate debate is focused on global warming, a new scientific study is coming to… stir things up. The collapse of the critical Atlantic Ocean marine circulation system, known as the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC), could cause extreme cooling in Europe and drastic changes in global climate.
The study, published in the prestigious scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, used a modern and sophisticated climate model for the first time and the results, as CNN reports, are impressive and worrying: Europe, and especially its northern regions, could experience a “little ice age”, with winter temperatures reaching as low as -48°C, heavy snowfall and extensive ice reaching as far as Scandinavia, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.
The same study reveals a paradox: while Europe will freeze, the US will continue to warm. Specifically, the study predicts that in London the temperature could drop to -19°C, while in Oslo it could reach -48°C, with almost half the months of the year having temperatures below zero.
What is AMOC
AMOC is one of the most basic circulation systems on the planet. It functions as a huge "convection belt" that brings warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic. There, the water cools and sinks, continuing its cycle towards the south.
This system of currents keeps Europe warmer than other regions at the same latitude. Its weakening, which has already begun according to many studies, threatens to overturn Europe's climate as we know it.
Polar cold in winter, heatwave in summer
This will not neutralize the remaining effects of climate change. Summer temperatures will continue to rise, causing more intense and deadly heatwaves. The contrast between polar cold in winter and heatwaves in summer will create new challenges for societies.
"Societies are not prepared for such extreme events," notes René van Westen, one of the authors of the study. "Crops will not withstand, food security will be at risk and infrastructure will be severely tested."
What if the temperature rises even further?
The study also examines a scenario in which the average global temperature rises by 4°C. In this case, the heat will be so intense that it will “overcome” the cooling caused by the AMOC collapse, even in Europe. “Warming is prevailing,” said van Westen.
However, the effects are not limited to temperatures. Sea level rise will accelerate, especially on the east coast of the US, causing severe flooding. Scientists warn that the cost of inaction could be catastrophic.
“Avoid this collapse at all costs”
Although the study is based on a single model and cannot predict with certainty when or if the AMOC will collapse, the warning is clear: even the possibility of such a scenario requires immediate and continuous monitoring of the oceans.
“A collapse of the AMOC would be catastrophic for society. "We want to avoid it at all costs," van Westen points out.
No comments:
Post a Comment